Western stock market preparing to measure the economic risk of conflict

The western stock market chose to be vigilant on Thursday. After the advance of the previous day, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia still mobilizes their full attention. After the fall, the New York Stock Exchange turned slightly green. At around 2:10 pm Greenwich Mean Time, the Dow Jones scored 0.02%, the S & P 500 scored 0.22%, and the Nasdaq scored 0.38%. Europe has evolved in a decentralized order. After the strong rise the day before, Paris was down 0.14% and London was 0.70%, while Frankfurt was down 0.56% and Milan was down 1.11%.

The war in Ukraine continues to disrupt markets trying to predict their impact on the global economy. Morale is pessimistic after the latest statement on negotiations between Russia and Ukraine: a Kremlin spokesman said on Thursday that a Russian delegation “I made a lot of effort»And blame the Ukrainians «Do not show the same enthusiasm“. on Wednesday,”compromise“This would make Ukraine a neutral country with the Swedish and Austrian models, but helped the stock market develop despite Ukrainian negotiators rejecting such models.

This situation pushed up oil prices, rising by more than 7%. Soaring energy prices due to conflict threaten every part of the economy and push up business costs. If the impact on energy and financial markets proves to be sustained, the war risks sacrificing global growth by one point a year, the OECD warns and could boost inflation by another 2.5 points. I have.

The Federal Reserve Board (FRB) currently forecasts a growth rate of US gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022 from 4.0% to 2.8%. On consumer prices, the Fed expects a 4.3% rise this year, almost double the previous forecast for December. This inflation, too high for the Federal Reserve’s hobby, urged financial institutions on Wednesday to raise their key interest rates for the first time since 2018. It can be repeated 6 times this year.

Combined with all these factors, the market is afraid of slowing economic growth. “”inflation“And that”Inflation expectations will continue to weigh on Fed officials more than downside risks to growth.Check out Allisson Boxer, Pimco’s economist. The Bank of England (BoE) also raised Thursday’s interest rates to pre-pandemic levels of 0.75% to counter inflation, which said it could exceed 8% in 2022.

Rising oil and gas

At around 3:05 GMT, the Brent barrel from the North Sea delivered in May rose 7.19% to $ 105.11, and the US WTI due in April rose 7.42% to $ 102.02. I did.

In the stock market, Milan’s oil company Eni (+ 1.43%), London’s BP (+ 2.12%) and New York’s Exxon Mobil (+ 1.16%) took advantage of this trend.

According to Bloomberg, European benchmark natural gas contracts increased by 8% after Russia’s gas supply to Germany declined.

ThyssenKrupp weakened by Ukraine

The German conglomerate said that the result of the war in Ukraine was “Impossible statement about feasibilityEven if the groupStay confident” That “Opens a very good outlook for the future“.

The values ​​most exposed to Russia suffered: in France, Renault (-5.25%) is behind the pack, as are European banks Unicredit (-5.92%) and Reifisen (-6.12%). It was the same.

Delivery is in progress

Deliveroo’s meal delivery platform saw revenue growth in 2021, but the sharp rise in costs led to a widening deficit. The action took 6.52%. In Frankfurt, delivery heroes earned 0.67%.

Currency side

In the currency market, after the BoE decision, the euro rose 0.33% against the greenback to $ 1.1070 and the pound fell 0.25% against the US currency to $ 1.3117. Bitcoin was stable at $ 41,140 (-0.30%).