War in Ukraine. What is the economic impact on the Hauts-de-France region?

Can the conflict in Ukraine affect the economy of Hauts-de-France? (© Illustration / Pexels)

War between Ukraine and Russia Far from Hauts-de-France and raging. However, I could feel the shock wave here. Economic.. This Monday, February 28, 2022, Local Chamber of Commerce (CCI) Provided the latest information on situation and response forecasts.

Ukraine and Russia: Commercial players

If Hauts-de-France Chamber of Commerce (CCI) had planned Presents 2021 results and 2022 forecasts, They had to immediately address questions and concerns about the impact of the Ukrainian conflict on the territory of Hauts-de-France. They answered various questions and elaborated on their next actions.

He spoke frankly after Philippe Hourdain, President of the Hauts-de-France CCI, sent a message of solidarity to the Ukrainian people. “There are short-term, medium-term, and long-term effects. »» Hauts-de-France is far from Ukraine and Russia, but maintains a commercial relationship with these two countries.

Ukraine is a relatively minor player in trade with the region and is ranked 43rd.When Export destination (0.3%) and 51When Instead of imports (0.2%).Russia is a little more dominant and is 13When Exports (1.2%) and 11When Instead of imports (2.5%).Hauts-de-France is mainly Cosmetics, agricultural machinery, or foods and materials such as rubber and plastic.

Counter-sanctions from Russia?

Gregory Stanislavski, Head of Research at Hauts-de-France CCI, describes the potential impact of this war on the region’s economy: Certainly it has a direct impact on the economy. “

The rain of sanctions on Russia has allowed companies to take swift action and deal with the eastern powers. Then you may suffer from these retaliatory decisions.. There may be development projects that are initially suspended.

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“Exports can be more complex as Russian banks are currently excluded from the SWIFT international payment system. Difficulty of payment.. Russia can boycott French products and decide to delay production in Hauts-de-France, “adds Gregory Stanislavski.

Towards higher resource prices

The principal investigator continues: The area is very dependent from hydrocarbon When Financial resources Of these countries. In fact, as specified in the 2021 -focused customs report, 24% of regional imports of petroleum products and 28% of regional imports of anthracite are from Russia..To make matters worse, these are almost 40% hydrocarbon It was imported from the Emperor’s country to Hauts-de-France.

Energy prices are also expected to rise. “Oil barrels reach $ 100, Gas prices go up.. Eastern Europe is a breadbasket of grain resources, and wheat and corn prices continue to rise, “adds Gregory Stanislavski.

Olivier Doger The Chair of the Agricultural Chamber completes this observation: “43% of nitrogen fertilizer comes from Ukraine and Russia. In war, it’s a closed market It is a source of medium- to long-term concerns. Prices are rising and product availability is diminishing. However, it is still in stock in the short term. »»

What are your business concerns?

Laurent Rigaud, chairman of the Hauts-de-France Chamber of Commerce, reports the concerns of various companies that regularly interact with Ukraine and Russia:We are already watching Increased raw material costs.. »»

These are some brakes that these companies are afraid of. Managing soaring raw material costs is not easy. 10 or 20% increase.. SMEs can be less profitable and difficult, “he adds.

Companies can raise prices to compensate for rising costs and maintain some profitability. Errors that encourage consumers to save more and can hinder a company’s cash flow. A virtuous circle.

Business solutions …

It was then created by Philippe Hourdain, President of Hauts-de-France CCI. List of actions to be implemented Not only to help companies in the face of difficulties, but also to prepare for potential dangers. “As in the case of a health crisis, a telephone platform will be launched to address the problem and guide the enterprise,” he reports.

This “task force” will be established from March 1st, bringing together key local business people. It also aims to raise awareness of companies dealing with Russia and Ukraine. Cyber ​​security risk “We know that Russia is a hotbed for hackers and businesses need to be prepared. »»

Finally, CCI carefully monitors the progress of this crisis, measures and predicts some of these outcomes, and monitors as much as possible the companies facing difficulties. At the same time, the organization has identified that it will provide regular feedback to the government to “adapt aid measures and mitigate shocks.”

… Not just actions to support Ukraine

The President is determined to provide support in the context of this war. The business world has to take responsibility.. We must further participate in political action in this context where we must act swiftly. »»

To this end, the new operation “Solidarité Ukraine Entreprises Hauts-de-France” follows four very specific points. First, a crowdfunding campaign that allows businesses to show solidarity, and a survey to list their solidarity proposals.

In the next step, Hauts-de-France CCI will make warehouses and storage facilities available for goods to be sent to Ukraine. To manage this storage and shipment to Ukraine, the organization plans to establish contact with logistics experts. Villeneuve Dusk Firefighter We have already collected about 20,000 euros worth of medicines and other actions will be taken.

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