Violent but bumpy exit from the economic crisis

2020 was the year of the global “Great Recession”. 2021 remains as a dazzling recovery. Global gross domestic product (GDP), which shrank 3.1% in 2020, is expected to recover 5.9% in 2021 (final figures will be announced in the first quarter of 2022).

These estimates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) give the impression of a “standard” recession followed by an almost “normal” rebound. However, that is not the case. The last 12 months have not been a long and calm river.

Non-uniformity

Geographical disparities are strong. The effects of the health crisis were much stronger in developed countries than in emerging countries (-4.5% and -2.1% in 2020, respectively), and conversely, recovery was weaker in the former than in the latter (+ 5.2). %). versus + 6.4%). Obviously, these performances have a lot to do with the trajectory of the Chinese economy, which avoided a reduction in GDP in 2020 (+ 2.3%) and achieved very strong growth in 2021 (8%).This year’s outlook is less imbalanced between wealthy and emerging economies..

The recovery was bumpy. Strong at the beginning of the year, then modest. Therefore, the GDP growth rate of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries averaged only 0.9% (quarterly fluctuation) in the third quarter, less than 1.7% recorded in the past three months. France was surprised at the end of the year, recording a 3% (third quarter) increase in GDP, surpassing Italy (2.6%), with Germany and the United Kingdom in particular at 1.8% and 1.3%, respectively. ..

Overall, GDP in the OECD zone is above pre-pandemic levels. More specifically, at the end of September, the OECD economy recorded 0.5% higher GDP than in the fourth quarter of 2019 (pre-crisis). It was explained by experts at the Château de Lamuette at the time, thanks to the dynamism of the United States, South Korea, and certain European countries.

Stimulation plan

This performance not only voted $ 1.90 trillion on March 10 and $ 1.2 trillion on November 5 in the world, especially in the United States, but also supports large-scale recovery plans in European countries. Is explained by. It is important (€ 750 billion) of the European Union, which is being prepared from 2020 and adopted on February 10, and will be added to the national efforts. France’s deficit in 2021 alone increased to € 220 billion in May, the record since 1945. France received the first European check of € 5.1 billion in August. In October, an investment plan of € 30 billion was announced. Above all, Europe is paving the way for Pro-Europeanism.

The expansion was also supported by a huge cushion of savings that households accumulated during the blockade. They have already taken advantage of these wool socks to fund some of their highly dynamic personal consumption.

But it is certainly the massive reliance on vaccination against Covid-19 in the world that has made such an economic liberation possible. The one billion vaccinated milestones were crossed in mid-April and reached their highest rates in early summer. This reduced the mortality trend, despite the recovery of mortality after several waves of pollution. There are a total of three in 2021, and the last is related to the generalization of the Omicron variant.

Therefore, the combination of these vaccination campaigns and compulsory measures has made it possible to avoid a large increase in confinement, as in 2020, especially in the second half of 2021. Reopening of restaurant terraces, shops, cinemas, theaters and museums.It was subsequently extended on July 1st, without the disputed health pass imposed by President Emmanuel Macron on July 21st for a rally of more than 50 people.er Was the economy released as it was in August? Certainly not.

2021 ended with the overlap of the 5th and 6th waves of the Delta and Omicron variants. The latter is more contagious, but seems less aggressive. Is it related to its nature or the coverage of vaccination (75% of the world’s population, mid-November)? Response for the first few weeks of 2022.

Violent but bumpy road from crisis
Health-dependent economy