The Russian war in Ukraine is accelerating the non-globalization movement. Europeans recognize that their security depends on greater economic sovereignty.
And the most spectacular of consciousness is in the most outward-looking European countries. We talk about the trade surplus between Germany and its stratosphere, which envy the world. Prime Minister Olaf Scholz wants to avoid using Russian hydrocarbons, coal, oil and, of course, gas as soon as possible to get out of this devastating dependence on the war situation. It rotates 360 degrees in the doctrine. ” Wandel Darch Handel »Changes through trade. Since the unification, it has been adopted by all predecessors. Everyone was convinced that trade could ease the toughest regime. That of China, where Germans sell large quantities of cars and machine tools, that of Russia, their preferred gas supplier. This trade theory that promotes peace is not new. At the beginning of the 20th century, it was the belief of the English thinker Norman Angell. World War I will rapidly wipe out beliefs, which will abruptly put an end to the new globalization of the economy.
At the beginning of the 21st century, the first warning shot was accompanied by a pandemic
Europeans, like many other countries, recognize that they rely on the outside world for important products such as masks, gloves, semiconductors and vaccines. Countries with a strong pharmaceutical industry were able to first produce serum, thereby protecting their population. Rediscover homemade virtues. Value chains have been praised by advocates of globalization for making commodities more efficient and therefore cheaper for end consumers. They are fragile due to cargo congestion and have proven counterproductive in crisis situations. The pandemic and the current war highlight the truth that other nations understood long ago.
Russia, for example, sought to be more self-sufficient following Western sanctions in 2014.
This is also what China grows. It has always ensured its development, taking into account its national security and its sovereignty. With the Made in China 2025 plan designed in 2015, Beijing aims to upgrade by significantly increasing its share of locally manufactured intermediate goods or parts. In response, Donald Trump launches his anti-Chinese trade crusade. Meanwhile, Narendra Modi laid the foundation for his economic policy in India. The decline of globalization has continued since 2008. That year, trade accounted for 60% of world GDP, and the financial crisis plunged trade and awakened populism. Since then, trade’s share of world GDP has been declining, today at only 50%.
Is it a revival of a closed economy?
We are not there yet. This option is so expensive that it’s virtually impossible, especially. Most developed countries rely too much on certain external supplies, such as oil and other raw materials that are not necessarily domestic. However, they review their replacement in the light of their safety. For example, the United States still has free trade agreements with neighboring countries Mexico and Canada, while Joe Biden is pursuing separation from China in the wake of Donald Trump. On their side, Europeans want to step up production, which is considered strategic, and review their supply chain, which is all the work going on to do without Russian gas.