Treasury: Three indicators to follow under magnifying glass

Posted on October 5, 2021 at 6:00 amUpdated at 5:02 pm on November 5, 2021

In the current situation, between recovery and stress, experts pay more attention than ever to scrutinize key economic indicators. And especially:

growth rate

In France, growth could reach 5.6% in 2021 and 3.4% in 2022.Shutterstock

Delta variants create uncertainty that impacts global economic growth. Therefore, according to the latest Euler Hermes estimates, the forecast has been revised down slightly to 5.5% in 2021 and 4.2% in 2022. There are big differences depending on the region. Developed countries benefit from budgetary support and vaccination, but emerging economies take longer to return to pre-crisis GDP. In France? Growth can reach 5.6% in 2021 and 3.4% in 2022. This is a level limited by “permanent tensions in the manufacturing and labor markets.” International trade should recover next year as well. Euler Hermes expects growth of 16.9% (and 8% in quantity) in 2021 and 8% and 6% in 2022, respectively. “Dynamics due to supply difficulties (transportation costs, lack of inputs) that companies are currently facing,” emphasizes credit insurance experts.

Payment delays and default rates

France recorded 17,800 bankruptcies in the first eight months of 2021.

France recorded 17,800 bankruptcies in the first eight months of 2021.Shutterstock

“French invoices have an average of more than 15 days of payment delays, reaching a record level not seen since 1995 in the summer of 2020. Thierry Millon, Research Director at Altares Dun & Bradstreet. Fortunately, the level dropped rapidly to a level in line with the “normality” of France. Between the 12th and the 12.5th. “This should not hide the strong tensions that put pressure on SMEs, especially in certain sectors such as catering. The economy as a whole is very vulnerable, which can be seen in payment terms by the end of the year. As always, with the ghosts of bankruptcy filings. “There were 17,800 bankruptcies in the first eight months of this year, down 14% compared to 2020. Current numbers are good, 30 years precedent. But from 2022, or even at the end of 2021, we need to prepare for an unavoidable reversal, because many companies are weakening today, sometimes denying it, but helping. The decline is causing relentless tension in their accounts. They have to go to court before they are completely out of breath … “thiery Milon thinks.

Raw material price

Since the beginning of the year, rising prices have affected energy, industrial and agricultural raw materials such as wheat here.

Since the beginning of the year, rising prices have affected energy, industrial and agricultural raw materials such as wheat here.Jean-Sebastien Evrard / AFP

This is the first concern in more and more sectors. Rising commodity prices since the beginning of the year are impacting energy, agricultural, industrial and transportation costs. Therefore, according to INSEE, the price of industrial materials increased 1.7 times between mid-2020 and May 2021. mineral. Steel prices have doubled and wood prices have more than doubled, “BPI France emphasizes in one of its latest reports. It can be explained by many factors that cannot be reduced to a pandemic, even if the pandemic weighs heavily on the situation: supply problems associated with supply shortages, especially supply chain disruptions, very powerful industrial production. A resurgence, especially in China … to the point where no one expects a price drop in the short term.