The revival of the pandemic will delay the recovery of the world economy


Investor confidence diminishes as Delta variants spread around the world at an alarming rate. Due to the surge in the number of cases with this variant of Covid-19, now or almost no country is spared. According to the World Health Organization (WHO) at the end of July, it was actually detected in 124 regions of the world. The emergence of variants certainly thwarted US optimism and believed that even the most advanced vaccinations, even the United States and China, nevertheless stopped the epidemic.

A new outbreak of pandemic

According to data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Covid-19 is recovering across the Atlantic, with more than 100,000 new cases per day, unprecedented since February. China was also hit by this outbreak, and authorities proclaimed containment of the population of the entire agglomeration and took steps such as suspending internal transport links and organizing large-scale screening. In addition, travel restrictions for foreigners have become stricter.

In Australia, Sydney has already been locked down for seven weeks, so authorities have announced a sixth lockdown in the city of Melbourne. This is due to the record number of new cases reported.As a result, more than half of Australia’s 25 million people You will be trapped again.

Gained trust in the German business world

The scenario is similar in Europe.As a result, investor confidence has plummeted in the euro area. For the first time in 6 months in August due to lower expectations for possible further restrictions According to i will increaseSentix index edited by research firm Oxford Economics. “Our recovery index recorded a contraction in the second week until July 25, down 0.3 points to 85, which is likely to be stagnant in the euro area. It suggests that, for the time being, we are careful about over-interpretation (of this indicator editor’s note) »».Oxford Economics comment.

Another indicator of suspicion is the German business environment indicator, a monthly ZEW survey (Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschafts forschung), According to the company, this also fell for the second straight month in August in anticipation of recovery. This indicator of economic sentiment, calculated based on investor surveys, fell to 40.4 after 63.3 in July and 79.8 in June. In addition, the institute said,The risks to the German economy are rising, especially in the fourth wave of Covid-19 from the fall, or the slowdown in China’s economic growth. “


Declining growth forecast in China

In fact, the situation in China is worried even by investment banks who are not confident in the recovery of the world’s second-largest economy. Therefore, on August 9th, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase & Company, Morgan Stanley, weathers growth. The surge in the number of Covid-19 pollution poses a threat of further recession in the economy. JP Morgan currently forecasts China’s GDP growth in the third quarter from 4.3% to 2%.Banks decreased to 8.9% weather 2021 is compared to the previous 9.1%.

Part of Morgan Stanley revised to 1.6% weather Goldman Sachs downgraded its quarterly estimate from 5.8% to 2.3% in China’s third-quarter GDP growth. For 2021, banks are now weather Previous 8.6%.

On the Russian side, the variant also attacked. In the last three months, it has accounted for 98% of new Covid cases, according to Oxford Economics data. Nevertheless, it is difficult to obtain a global vision for the country, as some of the information has not been declared, the Cabinet specifies. In the face of this, Moscow has stepped up its vaccination campaign and is now mandated in certain sectors. But Russians are still skeptical of vaccines. Only 27% of the population is fully vaccinated, compared to more than half of the French. But so far, this hasn’t had much of an impact on economic data, but non-oil private sector activity has weakened slightly in recent weeks. Oxford Economics intends to revise the forecast for now, as the 2021 growth forecast remains at 3.4%, integrating a slight slowdown in the third quarter after a strong recovery in the second quarter. Indicates that there is no such thing.

However, these air pockets may be temporary. Oxford Economics concludes that the rise of the Delta variant is not an imminent threat to the economy and risks affecting economic performance in the fourth quarter. The assessment of the situation has improved six times in a row, supporting strong growth forecasts for the third quarter.e Forecast and analysis.

Oil plunges in epidemic revival in China and the United States