The pension system has returned to shape (without waiting for reforms)

Thanks to the economic recovery, the social security retirement sector deficit has been revised downwards. The supplementary system for employees in the private sector is in the black.

The main public institutions are almost in equilibrium, large private funds are in the black, and retirement ages are slightly higher. The latest results of the pension system have thwarted the urgency of “parametric” reforms defended by multiple candidates for the presidential election.

Nothing is going well, the pension is better. According to the latest report from the Orientation Council, the French system and its 40 schemes suffered an overall loss of 13 billion in 2020 after being hit by Covid, and the “need for funding” was 70 last year as well. It was expected to be between 100 billion and 10 billion. Of the pension (COR).

But then things got better. On the social security side, the retirement sector ended the year with a deficit of 2.6 billion, thanks to the economic recovery, when the budget voted in December counted 5.8 billion holes. In the private sector, the executive and employee structure (Agirc-Arrco) has even shown a surplus of 2.6 billion and was able to replenish a comfortable reserve. Despite the persistence of Covid and the war in Ukraine, the fund “has no short-term risk,” assured its President Didier Weckner.

Postponement of legal age: difficult positions to defend

The soundness of this key plan was explained by a strong economic recovery in late 2021, resulting in a nearly 9% increase in salaries, resulting in more contributions.

A discovery that contrasts with the certainty of Elysee’s candidate who wants to postpone the statutory adulthood currently set at 62. At the age of 65, he proposed a “gradual shift” because “we are in an aging society” and “so it is normal for us to work more, especially given the nature of public spending.” It starts with Emmanuel Macron.

The same goes for Valérie Pécrès, who has been aiming to “save the purchasing power of retirees” for 65 years, and Eric Zemmour, who wants to be 64 years to solve the “overall workload problem of French people”. Positions that are more difficult to defend when the account is already close to balance.

“No emergency”

The union does not hesitate to point this out. “The numbers show that there is no urgency,” so Dominique Corona (Unsa) blames these candidates for their “arbitrary and simple” vision. “The funding problem is arguably less serious than some say,” said Frederick Seve (CFDT), his part, “but they aren’t all zero.”

Some plans are certainly in a delicate position, especially those of territorial and hospital civil servants (CNRACL), which are expected to triple their deficit from € 1 billion to € 3 billion by 2025. An unbalanced equation due to the lack of statutory agent recruitment, while the contract fund (Ircantec) has accumulated surplus and has a jackpot of 13 billion.

Some are happy with the current rules, including funding from doctors (CARMFs), pharmacists (CAVPs), dentists, and midwives (CARCDSFs). In addition, the current rules do not prevent the continued increase in effective retirement age, which also rose to an average of 62.9 years last year, affected by the Touraine reform, which should extend the contribution period to 43 years by 2035. Currently (compared to 42).

However, this is not enough to offset the effects of the aging population. Overall, COR predicts that pension plans are unbalanced at most 15 years ago. However, in all scenarios, “the weight of Kunitomi’s pensions naturally drops,” opposes Michelle Boga (FO). He thought, “Measurement of age is not justified today,” and “taboo.”