“The economic system has not been destroyed”

Dennis Camilini, director of the Moselle branch of the Bank of France, has never produced such dire consequences in his career.Photo Week

Historical decline in GDP, significant decline in employment, and business suffering. The Bank of France released its findings on the country’s economic situation in the middle of the year. The health crisis has had a serious impact on French companies, and GrandEst companies are no exception.

never seen. France promised its history with a 32% reduction in activity at the end of March. Such a drop in GDP of € 220 billion is an absolute record. What we can’t imagine, anyway, what we can’t imagine: It’s a cataclysm. Economic activity has collapsed to the highest level ever.Even during the war, we didn’t know these numbers “Warns Denis Camillini, head of the Bank of France (Mosel). Banking estimates indicate that this situation will occur in 2020, before experiencing the recovery of bird feathers between 2020 and 2022. It should lead to a reduction in GDP of about 8.7%.

In other words, France will gradually recover and activity levels at the end of 2019 may return to the first quarter of 2022. GDP recovery should occur with a 16% rise in the third quarter of 2020. (Compared to the previous quarter).

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Decreased activity is about to have a direct impact on employment, with about 800,000 employment declining each year. Again, you will need to recreate 700,000 net jobs between 2021 and 2022. ” Economic equipment has not been destroyed. Inflation remains low despite high liquidity injections. This crisis has nothing to do with the crisis experienced in 2008, which lasted until 2011. Banks have the means to sustain the economy. “, Reassure Dennis Camirini.

What about Grand Est companies?

Banking agencies have focused on four active sectors to inventory the economic health of companies in the Grand Est region. Therefore, 380 companies from the industrial sector, 599 companies from market services, 281 companies from construction and 588 companies from trade are questioned, all of which generate more than € 750,000 in annual sales.

77% of the manufacturers surveyed said sales declined during captivity, compared to 71% in market services, 70% in the construction industry and 56% in the trade sector. Found that 37% of manufacturers and market services are afraid of negative consequences throughout the year. Among the key data, 28% of companies surveyed from the commercial sector needed to postpone or suspend their investment compared to 34% of market services and construction.

On average, almost one in two declares that they have relied on state-guaranteed loans. However, in the trade sector, “only” 36% had to claim PGE. Finally, the companies in the Grand Est region shown in the survey rely heavily on partial unemployment. 96% of companies in the construction sector had to use this system, 83% of manufacturers, 78% of market services, and 66% of merchants had to use this system. ..

Numbers

577,854.. This is the number of French companies that have benefited from a total of € 119 billion in state-guaranteed loans. At Grand Est, 39,885 companies used PGE to create envelopes worth € 7 billion.

100 billion euros.. This is the total accumulated by the household during the period of confinement. The problem is knowing how this amount will be mobilized. This adds to France’s savings of € 170 billion.