Quebec economy that can absorb shocks

Quebec is not Russia’s major economic partner for Vladimir Putin, so it should be able to absorb the effects of the conflict despite certain short-term price fluctuations.

• Read again: Sanctions: Russian billionaires are suffering

• Read again: Already the winner of the war

• Read again: War in Ukraine: Also affected by Quebec

“There are companies at greater risk, but the entire Quebec economy is not dependent on relations with Russia,” sums up Jan Simon, a strategic professor at Laval University. Last year, Quebec imported $ 888 million worth of products from Russia (21).When Rank), this is US $ 34 billion (1)er Rank) or China’s $ 14 billion (2)When Rank).

According to the Ministry of Economic Innovation (MEI), trade in goods between Quebec and Russia was only 0.4% of total international trade in 2020.

In the same year, the five most imported products from Russia were oil, fertilizer, tires, coal and silver.

“Importers need to find new suppliers, which are in the international market,” analyzes Arthur Sylve, a professor of economics at Laval University.

“I don’t think this will be a shock to Quebec companies,” he says.

Some industries affected

When it comes to exports, Russia is not one of Quebec’s 25 most important exporters.

Still, for some mid-tech companies, flight simulators, and turbojets, the effects of war can be felt at the cost of millions of dollars. In Dejardan, it is estimated that energy prices will be affected.

“In the United States and Canada, one of the first direct impacts on the majority of the population should be further increases in gasoline and energy prices,” the economist said in a recent memo.

“Russia is not only one of the world’s largest producers of oil and gas, but also a major supplier of industrial metals such as nickel, aluminum and palladium,” the National Bank points out.

Nonetheless, despite these price fluctuations, we should be able to continue economic exchanges without major shocks.

“During the Cold War, trade between Western and Soviet countries continued almost smoothly. Commerce is generally excluded from most sanctions,” Silve said.

“Sanctions are primarily of economic nature. They target banks. So far, none of these sanctions are of commercial nature,” he concludes.

– Marie Christine Trottier collaboration

According to the Ministry of Economic Innovation, between 2016 and 2020, except 2017, medium-tech products dominated Quebec’s exports to Russia.

trade Quebec-Russia

Import $ 878 million

export $ 259 million

Ten Main export products

  • 1.1. Flight simulator $ 15.7M
  • 2.2. Turbojet $ 14.4M
  • 3.3. machine $ 7 million
  • 4.4. Airplane, helicopter $ 6.6 million
  • 5.5. faucet $ 6 million
  • 6.6. Vehicle accessories $ 4.6 million
  • 7. Machine parts $ 4.2 million
  • 8.8. Excavator $ 4.2 million
  • 9.9. Brazing machine $ 3.9 million
  • 10.10. Piston engine $ 3.6 million

Ten Main imports

  • 1.1. oil $ 143.3 million
  • 2.2. Fertilizer (nitrogen) $ 89.6 million
  • 3.3. tire $ 50 million
  • 4.4. coal $ 35.1 million
  • 5.5. money $ 27.9 million
  • 6.6. Mineral fertilizer $ 26.6 million
  • 7. Purified copper $ 21.8 million
  • 8.8. Raw aluminum $ 20.2M
  • 9.9. plywood $ 19.3M
  • 10.10. Rolled products $ 18.7 million

Export by Technology level

  • high tech $ 32.8 million
  • Medium and advanced technology $ 81.2 million
  • Medium low tech $ 8.7 million
  • Low tech $ 13 million

Imports by technology level

  • high tech $ 6.4 million
  • Medium and advanced technology $ 147.9 million
  • Medium low tech $ 318.4 million
  • Low tech $ 31 million

(Source: Statistics Quebec, 2021 and Quebec-Quebec-Russian Trade Summary Note, Quebec Ministry of Economic Innovation, 2020)