President: Marine Le Pen’s economic program deadlock

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Posted on April 13, 2022 at 19:14Updated at 7:24 pm on April 13, 2022

In the 1980s, Jean-Marie Le Pen swore to Ronald Reagan five years ago when his daughter left the euro for a bet on protected trade. What does the 2022 “lepenomics” look like between these two extremes?

Marine Le Pen has clearly simplified the message in the president’s economic program and now says “I want to return the money to France.” This is summarized in a long list of checks that support purchasing power, youth or family, at the risk of triggering a reaction from the financial markets given the size of the bill.

“In practice, the guidelines and ideologies are inconsistent, but such programs would be difficult to apply given their costs and the expected reaction from Europe and the market,” said Natixis’ economic adviser. Patrick Artus analyzes. “Candidates are surpassing bids using the context created by’whatever the cost’. She proposes a wartime regime. But still, that social aspect is very controversial, “adds Ludovic Subran, Chief Economist at Allianz.

Deleted measure

In the five years between the two presidential elections, Marine Le Pen would have done a sophisticated job anyway and would have drawn the line of economic image she offered to France. The blueprint is, above all, related to the part dedicated to the company. In 2017, his series of proposals brought urticaria to employers. Of course, not only withdrawal from the euro, but also a 3% tax on imports, the abolition of Miriam El Comri’s labor law, and a very expensive retirement plan at the age of 60.

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These suggestions have disappeared or have been fixed. And in front of Medef, at the end of February, a former advocate of an economic interventionist state rewarded the attending business leaders, “You are the lungs of France,” and believed in the leftist reputation, I. We wanted to attach him. “

Reluctant management

This attractive number is limited, and major employer unions such as Medef and CPME have issued warnings to the program this week. “But there is no real innovation policy, no professional business projects, and the form of protected trade principles as seen in commodities border control measures remains,” warns Emmanuel Jeshua, director of the company. Study with Rexecode. Mathieu Plane, an economist at OFCE, said:

His energy policy options (currently an important point from a business perspective) also raise concerns. “It doesn’t make sense to do without renewables such as solar and wind, and it will take 20 years to strengthen our nuclear program. Until then, there is a risk that energy supply problems will continue,” Patrick Artus said. say.

Therefore, in addition to this streamlined enterprise component, Marine Le Pen did not hesitate to take steps in favor of households. Gilles Ivaldi, a CNRS researcher, calculated in a recent memo: Political scene “.

Attention purchasing power

Elected representatives of Pas-de-Calais did not downplay support because they expected purchasing power to be pushed into the countryside as inflation began early last summer. The non-negligible part concerns young people (high-scoring election departments) and families who want to be markers for the program. This is complemented by the reduction of VAT in energy products and certain necessities.

But is it a social program? “The tax gift it offers is not really a redistribution. Inheritance tax cuts, income tax abolition under the age of 30, and even salary contribution tax cuts increase to 3 SMICs. That is, already wealthy employees go to people who don’t necessarily need it, “says the judge. Le Souverain.

Market warning

In particular, this policy “promises to be very costly,” emphasizes Emmanuel Jessua of Rexecode. Allianz calculates that this could result in an additional deficit of 4 GDP points per year by 2027. For the nation, “consider Emmanuel Jessua.

Last Friday, France’s 10-year rate reached 1.25%, the highest since 2015, but polls claimed the dynamics of Marine Le Pen. “If we win, the French government’s borrowing costs could rise to Italian levels,” he read a recent note from Capital Economics. “Italy is headed by Mario Draghi, who is considered a serious manager, so it could be even worse,” Patrick Altus added.