For the third consecutive year, the world economy has been hit by two severe shocks. In short, Covid’s pandemic had a profound impact on traditional supply chain models, and the war between Russia and Ukraine created a major energy, food and currency crisis. This crisis, which has a serious impact on the economic situation of the countries on the planet, is linked by a series of specializations of the countries of the world within this universal framework, and the disconnection of the link is the whole.
Almost a month after the conflict, the world economy was at a great cost in terms of turmoil. The damage suffered by Ukraine is enormous, but due to the lack of feasible information, the impact of a series of sanctions on the Russian economy and its currencies is still largely unrecognizable. But the most widespread observation is that these western sanctions have had a “boomerang” effect on the European economy, especially Germany, which relies heavily on Russia for its energy in response to Russia’s aggression. In response, Russia has classified the countries behind these sanctions as “hostile” and paid for “counter-sanctions”, especially in export rubles to stabilize the value of currencies in the foreign exchange market. have started. Temporary suspension of exports to these countries. What are the consequences of this dispute?
This depends on the degree of economic resistance of the countries concerned to major extrinsic shocks such as the paralysis of Ukraine’s trade, the difficulty of Russia’s global commerce, and the ability of European countries to do so without Russian raw materials for a long time. increase. You can already learn the lessons. The war has had an impact on Russia and Ukraine to disrupt the particularly favored raw material markets. These two countries are major exporters of wheat, corn, oil, natural gas, coal, gold and other precious metals.
Russia is one of the world’s leading fertilizer producers, the world’s third largest oil exporter and one of the major gas exporters. Russia and Ukraine account for 29% of the world’s wheat exports and 19% of corn exports. Turkey and Egypt receive nearly 70% of their wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine are also major corn suppliers in China. Ukraine is the world’s largest producer of sunflower oil and Russia is second. Yemen, Syria, Tunisia and Lebanon depend on Ukraine for their grain supply.
Russia is the world’s fourth largest exporter of aluminum and one of the world’s top five producers of steel, nickel, palladium and copper. Ukraine is also a major supplier and has a large share of palladium and platinum exports. Russia is the third largest gold producer in the world after Australia and China. It accounts for 38% of the world’s palladium production.
Ukraine is a major supplier of refined noble gases such as krypton and neon, the latter being essential for the production of semiconductors. This means that these two countries place a great deal of emphasis on the global supply of raw materials in the agricultural and industrial sectors. Until then, Russia has used the rent produced by the natural bounty of raw materials to develop specific sectors such as automobiles, aviation, air transportation, the “military industry”, the manufacture of machine tools, and the construction of ships and machines. I did. Agriculture, food production, fertilizer production.
Regarding fertilizers, the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade recommends that Russian producers temporarily suspend exports. In contrast, as far as France is concerned, the Fertilizer Industry Union (Unifa) states that “fertilizer producers are organized to ensure their country’s long-term food sovereignty.”
According to President Vladimir Putin, Russia will take advantage of the current crisis, the war in Ukraine, to promote import substitution models to “replace” the entire series to export hydrocarbons. Imported goods that rebuild a heavily dependent economy. For the president of the Russian accounting court, he declared that if Western sanctions continue, it will take “at least two years” to rebuild the country’s economy. The same is true for European countries that have decided to put an end to their dependence on Russia.
I don’t have any friends in the state, I’m just interested!
Therefore, we show signs of a near-self-sufficient economic withdrawal movement by European countries (including Russia) wrapped in the concept of sovereignty and a serious reversal of this free globalization that Russia integrated into the collapse of the European Union. I am witnessing. USSR in 1991 Thus, the war between Russia and Ukraine, born of the extrinsic shock of COVID 19 and the need for mutual security, reveals to countries around the world that complete interdependence is limited. Did. As far as Senegal is concerned, UN representatives did not vote in favor of a resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
In Africa, five countries, including Eritrea, voted against the resolution. Eight countries on the continent, namely Burkina Faso, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Cameroon, Morocco, Togo, and Senegal, did not participate in the vote.
This abstention from Senegal came as a surprise from what is considered a traditional ally of Western nations. With the injunction of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the choice to abstain during the UN vote on sanctions against Russia, African leaders have several types of considerations. They must have kept in mind the need to emphasize their interests, in particular. , Lack of European cohesion on Russian gas imports and the porosity of measures to block access to the currency of the Russian banking system through gas companies (Gazprom), but especially to strategic Russian products such as wheat Dependence, corn and gas that can create social tensions.
This unusual position of President Saul heading in the direction of non-alignment deserves to be welcomed. By saying that “sovereignty” will become a keyword in the economic and military fields, the vulnerability of COVID and the Russian-Ukraine war has become brilliant. One of the main lessons of this crisis, and also the pandemic lesson of covid-19, is that international economic solidarity tends to give way to national interests.
The risks of food crises in certain African countries announced by the World Food Program do not appear to be of particular interest in northern countries. African countries also need to review their international economic conditions, establish partnerships that may promote the industrial processing of raw materials accordingly, and organize their food security.
In this regard, Colonel Mamadi Dunboya, Guinea’s transitional president, responded to the decision to require mining companies operating in his country to industrially dispose of bauxite on site (7.4 billion tonnes of reserves). I’m listening. This kind of initiative can certainly promote the industrialization of the continent.