Is Russia a great power? Economic power vs.Military power

NoSince the beginning of the war in Ukraine, we have heard a lot that Russia is not as formidable as it looks. On the other hand, because her army is probably “a fantastic military force exposed to trials” world By Isabel Facon, Deputy Director of the Strategic Research Foundation [1].. On the other hand, it is not a big economic force, so it proves that its gross domestic product (GDP) is about the same as Spain. This seemed worth confirming, but I was also able to look for other indicators of military strength as objectively as possible and compare the two approaches and the differences between the two. This article is built around the three planispheres.

For GDP, you can find one of the most reliable sources in the World Bank database. This allowed us to create Figure 1 showing both the total amount of GDP (depending on the size of the circle), agriculture, industry, and the composition between industries. Service GDP (depending on sector color) and finally GDP per capita (depending on country-based background color), all in 2019, Previous The confusion caused by the COVID pandemic.

Figure 1 GDP of countries around the world in 2019
Click the thumbnail to enlarge the map. Design and production Théry.

In fact, on this map Russia appears in the middle positionIn terms of both total and composition of GDP, and per capita GDP, it is in the middle group between rich countries in North America and Western Europe (and Saudi Arabia, Australia, New Zealand) and really poor countries. Africa and Asia (and Bolivia, Venezuela, and some Central American countries).

For military power, we used the index developed by GlobalFirePower,

his Power index Or “Power Index [militaire] According to its author, try [2] “By relying on the analysis of more than 50 indicators related to defense, we determine the capabilities of the armed forces of a particular country. The maximum military force index is 0.00, a theoretical score that cannot be achieved by current formulas. , The lower the value of the index, the higher the potential military power. Calculation of military power index :

.. The index is not only based on the total number of weapons available in a particular country, but also focuses on the variety of attack power available.

.. Recognized or suspected nuclear-weapon states receive a “bonus” even if the stockpile of nuclear weapons is not considered.

.. The state’s economic development is integrated into the analysis.

.. Geographical factors, logistic reliability, natural resources, and local industry are crucial.

.. The total workforce available is an important factor as it affects many other indicators.

.. Landlocked countries are not punished for the absence of a military navy, while existing navies are punished for the lack of variety of means available.

.. Members of the military alliance (such as NATO) theoretically share resources and therefore receive bonuses.

.. The financial stability of the nation is taken into consideration.

.. Diplomatic impacts are not included in the analysis. [3]

Note the methodology for calculating Power index It is reviewed almost every year to take into account various advances / technological developments in the field of defense. Therefore, care should be taken when comparing this indicator from one year to another, or during a particular time period. “

Figure 2 shows a map created from this index (countries with the weakest index, thus reversing the color range to emphasize the strongest military force) and another indicator created from the World Bank database (military). It is a map that combines (ratio). GDP spending in 2019.

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Figure 2 2019 Military Power Index and Percentage of Military Expenditure in GDP
Click the thumbnail to enlarge both maps.Design and production Elve Teri

In both cases, Russia is in the top group of countries in the world at the same time, while the other countries belong to different categories on the two maps. China already spends a low percentage of GDP on military spending, but it is one of the major military forces, and other countries spend a lot on this area, but in exchange for significant military spending. not. This is the case in countries where military spending is dissipated in civil wars such as Libya and Colombia, or in regional conflicts involving Saudi Arabia.

for In association Economic power (measured by GDP per capita) and military power (measured by GDP per capita) Power index) Adopted the statistical method of the linear regression residue that is the basis of Figure 3.. It is based on the principle of deviation from the linear relationship between the two variables (countries close to the world average), and the reproduction of color gradations distinguishes countries with greater economic power than military power. Or dark blue on the map) and vice versa (yellow, orange, red on the map).

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Figure 3 Economic power {against} military power
Click the thumbnail to enlarge the map.Design and production Elve Teri

As a result, Russia was ranked in the group of the most “warlike” countries. This will bring us closer to Egypt, Pakistan, Algeria and Congo (which has more military power than expected given GDP). Conversely, the group of most “peaceful” countries (less military than expected given GDP) is a combination of Ireland, Belgium, the Netherlands, Mexico, Canada, Germany and Japan. You may be surprised that the United States is there too, but its GDP is much higher than any other country in the world, so it could be both a major economic and major military force on Earth. I have.

Copyright 18 March 2022-Thery-for the FR version /


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