The Bank of France has just released its annual report on the economic health of its countries, regions and sectors. Recovery has been confirmed locally, as in other areas, but it is slowly recovering in certain sectors.
Each year, the Bank of France conducts a survey as close to the field as possible by asking business leaders directly about their activities, their sales and their results, their staff and their outlook. concrete. “That is, this is a 2021 assessment, which internationally shows that even if China and Japan experience a slight decline in the second half of the year, they will return to pre-crisis levels,” said Philippe Bigot, director of BDF65. start. “At the national level, it should be noted that companies are very resilient, especially thanks to the state’s assistance that has made it possible to pass the course. In 2020, when we recorded -8%. By comparison, growth is +7%, and 650,000 jobs have been created. Indeed, growth forecasts for 2022 have slowed, but even if not all sectors are on the same ship, + It remains at a high level of 3.5%. “
Sector is still vulnerable
Therefore, the hotel and catering industry or the aviation industry is not yet a positive spiral, but it is approaching it. And it is especially sensitive in Occitania, a very “aero” region, and even more sensitive in our department. “Yes,” confirms Yohan Antonio. “There are a lot of aviation subcontractors affected, but the recovery is about to end as our major customers are doing better.” “Maintaining Lourdes’ peculiarity, the city of Marian struggles to reopen. Hautes-Pyrénénes is the sector most affected by the 2020 crisis, especially in terms of employment of seasonal workers in Lourdes. In 2021, Lourdes hotel activity was only 80% of what it was before the crisis. Also, the outlook for 2022 is very fragile, overseas customers have very few bookings and often hesitate for air transportation. “But you can unlock it.
Because dynamics is everything. With the exception of Lourdes, the summer season was great and the winter was a very good start at the resort. The unemployment rate, which jumped to 11% in 2020, is 9.2%, which is below the regional average. The business leaders we contact have investment and employment prospects, especially in construction and industry. If there is recovery and momentum, it can hinder it. First of all, we hope that supply difficulties and rising prices are cyclical and risk damaging a company’s profitability. Difficulty of more structural adoption. And I’m more worried in the medium to long term. Another “concern” is the end of state compensation and PGE reimbursement, even though most companies should be able to perform because they are not “wasting” PGE.
Other indicators show a recovery in the sector’s economy. First, credit brokerage activity when banks refused to lend to businesses decreased by 60%, resulting in a particularly reduced distribution of dynamic lending. Similarly, business failures have decreased by –40. Another factor is that the number of individual debt overhangs has decreased significantly and savings have increased significantly. Hover … “According to the European Central Bank, the satisfaction rate is 2%, the top is overheated, the bottom can runaway and is penalized. Inflation in France reached 3% in 2021, and the euro area was mainly due to soaring energy prices. Analysts in 2022 forecast a 2.5% and even 2% decline. Return to normal …