Grandstand. Jean Tirole, Nobel Prize in Economics: “Marine Le Pen’s economic program is dangerous for France”

Essential
Received the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2014 and received a grant from Jean Tirole, Honorary President of the Toulouse School of Economics (TSE) Midi dispatch A week before the second round of the presidential election, a dedicated platform where he shatters Marine Le Pen’s economic programs one by one.

The far right has never been so close to power since World War II. His entry into the business will have a significant impact on the values ​​of our society and our country. The desire of candidates to move away from Europe and its democratic principles to approach populist leaders such as Hungarian and Polish leaders, or even dictators like Putin, seems to be particularly worrisome. These points have, of course, been mentioned many times to prevent it. But what about that economic program?

National management can be compared to family and corporate budget management. If you borrow, you have to spend money so that you can repay it, you have to be credible, and you need a guarantor. In France, these three criteria are interpreted as follows: Preparing the country for the economic future, gaining the trust of lenders, and supporting Europe.

List of Prevert styles

The Marine Le Pen program is unfortunately a list of new spending, largely undervalued at € 68 billion annually, funded with the help of fictitious receipts. It starts with $ 16 billion annual savings related to immigration. This calculation is based on air. All studies show that migrants spend very little on public funding. Because the social security burden of working people compensates for the costs incurred on our social protection system. The 15 billion new revenues candidates promise to earn by fighting taxes and social fraud appear to be fictitious-in each case generated by the implementation of European regulations on e-commerce and electronic billing. Not a thing (to fight effectively) VAT scams), and by programs implemented by health insurance against social scams. And what about 2 billion in response to 8 billion savings in national functioning (how to make these savings) or virtual reductions in spending generally associated with anxiety?

Conversely, the cost of that spending program appears to be significantly undervalued. This is especially true of the highly controversial pension subject (the cost is undervalued by $ 17 billion, according to the Montaign Institute). There is no miracle solution. Successive reforms have made it possible in recent years to readjust parts of the pension system, but it is still vulnerable. You may want to consider new reforms to integrate the system, raise the level of a particular pension, and better consider the difficulties. However, there are only three solutions to achieve this. (1) Already very high in France, increasing social contributions that emphasize employee purchasing power and unemployment, (2) reducing pensions, or (3) as in other developed countries working It will be longer. The choice between these three options is a social choice. On the other hand, reducing the retirement age to 60 will cause the system to go bankrupt and have serious consequences for the most disadvantaged.

“The alien exclusion of his program will scare doctors, scientists and engineers.”

The most surprising of all these proposals is that this public funding cannot prepare for the future or reduce inequality due to inadequate spending. For example, Mrs. Le Pen’s action would exempt top graduates under the age of 30 who earn five times the minimum wage from income tax.

You also need to add direct costs for citizens and businesses. The program’s alien exclusion will scare the doctors, scientists and engineers we need and deprive our company of the labor they need.

After the invasion of Ukraine with “whatever you need” in the Covid era, and in preparation for a potential new crisis (new viruses, military threats, generalized protected trade principles), we are no longer I can’t get on the boat. However, most of Marine Le Pen’s programs basically fund consumption and enable collective wealth creation, except for production tax cuts already initiated by the current government. Not included. This is a program that will never project itself towards tomorrow’s sources of purchasing power in education, higher education and R & D. It has not responded to the climate crisis that has hit our children and grandchildren (reducing VAT on petroleum products, dismantling wind turbines, solar energy moratoriums lead us to a term to buy more. Not to mention the fact that it should be expensive carbon power abroad).

Marine Le Pen France, Europe version of Argentina

MarineLePen needs investor confidence to fund her program and attract job-creating companies. Public debt went from 100% of GDP to almost 116% of GDP, but this affected the credibility of the French state as most of the reforms implemented (labor market, vocational training, taxation) took place. Is not given. To support growth and enable lower unemployment. In other words, the market believed that this increased debt was sustainable as France was beginning to follow the path of economic growth. Conversely, the lack of foresight in Marine Le Pen’s program sees the latter in France, which sees the European version of Argentina (formerly one of the wealthiest countries in the world and sunk by irresponsible administration). There is no reassurance.

Trust is also based on attitude. Like Putin and Trump, Marine Le Pen hates recognized professionals who have assimilated into the “elite of the earth” and especially potential contradictions. But if she is wrong, she is wrong much less often than a professional who does not have the training and time needed to understand the complex problems of today’s world. And they aren’t looking for a vote. Had she been in power, Marine Le Pen would have taken a problematic position on vaccine and health path issues, both in terms of her health and economy.

France is a small country and Europe needs to be present in the geopolitical context. It’s about protecting your country, negotiating international agreements, regulating digital, and fighting tax evasion. But it can also withstand a potential new economic crisis. If the European countries you care for are holding up today, it is partly due to the “what costs” of the European Central Bank and the progress of European construction over the last decade. France has benefited from funding its own investment plans.

“Frexit doesn’t say that name”

But when Marine Le Pen stopped talking about leaving Europe and the euro (“France’s departure from the EU”), her program remained in European rules, quickly causing a serious crisis to the Union and France’s. Immediately affect the credibility of your budget. Our European neighbors will never accept the creation of the “European Union”, the issue of freedom of movement of goods and people, and constitutional amendments, where reunion national candidates are gradually replacing the European Union. The superiority of French law over European law, or the unilateral reduction of France’s contribution to the EU budget. It’s Frexit that doesn’t say its name. There is no ECB or European reconstruction plan to protect us from high borrowing in the event of difficulties. And that will be the end of the CAP, which greatly supports our farmers and rural development.

French people who suffer from lack of purchasing power, have difficulty working, are worried about their future and the future of our planet, young people looking for work and training will not be able to live up to their expectations with this program. .. In our anxiety-inducing world, it’s important to resist the sirens of disassembled, unfunded programs. Before we support a policy that makes our country permanently impoverished, let’s think about it.