After a two-year pandemic, the world economy is now at risk of suffering the consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. And New Caledonia is inevitable. Rising prices for gas, oil, and wheat … Economics are already in a very tense situation, preparing for further inflation. Our file.
Kyiv and Noumea are 15,000 kilometers apart. However, the war in Ukraine struck by Russia risks affecting the purchasing power of Caledonians. As the president of Medef-NC explained, economic people are preparing for it. “We have started discussions with members, we are still waiting for specific results.”Said Mimsy Daly, who was interviewed on Monday, February 28th. But she has already mentioned the impact of passenger air transport, air freight, sea transport, and world prices on both exports and imports.
Impact of War in Ukraine: Mimsy Daly, Medef-NC, Coralie Cochin Participate
Overview. Start with this summary by Natacha Lassauce-Cognard, Gaël Detcheverry, Nicolas Luiggi.
Technically, Caledonia does not depend on Russian oil. Especially sourced via Singapore, Black Gold is primarily sourced from the Middle East. Therefore, there is no risk of shortage, but it has an inevitable impact on market prices. Russia exports more than 2 million barrels a day to Europe. If Europe no longer buys these barrels from Russia, they will have to buy them elsewhere, Nicholas Fabray asked on Monday, February 28. He is responsible for the Energy Regulations section of Dimenc, New Caledonia’s Ministry of Industry, Mining and Energy. “And these other countries need to produce more, because if they don’t produce more, prices will go up.”
Impact on LPG gas
The same is true for gas cylinder prices. It should go up. And this is because Caledonia does not import natural gas, as Russia produces. Le Caillou uses liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), a by-product of the Australian refinery. “About LPG”Prolong Dimenc’s manager. “We could be completely tied to the price of crude oil entering the refinery to make crude gas.”
Goods that are already on the rise
This war in Ukraine will affect global energy prices and will, in fact, help intensify the already implemented rise in raw material prices in 2021.From March 1, 2022 as evidence of this rise in gasoline and diesel prices in pumps: New Caledonia’s service it is “Reflecting the oil market market price in January 2022”..When “This upward trend already observed in December 2021 is explained by the economic recovery, and thus the increasing need for petroleum products, especially by China.”..
The effect of grains on bread
Another region affected by the shock waves of Russia and Ukraine: grain. Russia is a major wheat exporter. Ukraine, 4th. Both countries alone account for 29% of the world’s exports. Indeed, Caledonia obtains supplies almost exclusively from Australia’s neighbors, importing 30,000 tonnes of wheat annually. But bakeries are afraid of further price inflation, which has already reached critical levels.
Even before the conflict, a 10% increase (37-47 F per kilogram of wheat) was expected in the first quarter. And another, 10% of the second quarter. “80% of the ingredients for bread are flour.”Launched Didier Maraye, Director of Saint-Christophe Bakery. “When wheat goes up and flour goes up, it will affect the bread. It is inevitable.”
Of the 30,000 tonnes of wheat imported annually from Australia, 60% of these grains are stored in Tamore and are awaiting processing into edible flour.
Animal foods will be expensive
Farmers are affected when grain prices soar. Bills for feeding their animals can be heavy. Eat sunflower meal, which contributes significantly to animal feed. The Chamber of Agriculture claims that in some years, 50-70% of imports from France come from Ukraine.
The entire, “”[pour] Farmers in general (I’m talking about large products such as pigs, spawning chickens, broiler chickens), food will account for 40%, 50%, 60% and even 70% of their costs. It’s tremendous “, Yves Jean-Baptiste, director of the Saint-Vincent feed plant, one of the two animal feed manufacturers in Caledonia, emphasizes. Caledonia is heavily dependent on the outside world in terms of grain and feed.
For farmers, the risk of inflation is also real for fertilizer prices, which have already recorded unprecedented rises. The New Caledonia Agricultural Council, citing INSEE, points out that the price of nitrogen solution increased by 157% between December 2020 and December 2021. It also cites urea, which has increased in price by 151% (used as fertilizer in agriculture). According to 2020 and December 2021, and still sources Insee. However, Ukraine is the major supplier of urea to the European Union and indirectly to Caledonia.
Not only that. CANC reminds us that natural gas is used in the manufacturing process of ammonia, which is the raw material for nitrogen fertilizer. Especially in Ukraine, many production units are stagnant and may even stop production due to ongoing conflicts.
After all, it is the consumer who pays the high price. Consumers whose purchasing power has already declined due to a two-year pandemic, and more recently the rain in La Nina, which is pushing up the prices of greengrocer stalls.
Air traffic exposed to various turbulences
This is one of the first impacts felt around the world. The war in Ukraine closed airspaces and rerouted, resulting in a chain of consequences. From the beginning, Caledonians have noticed that the uncertainties that weigh heavily on the aerial corridor, especially for the regular Paris-Tokyo-Noumea link. Starting Sunday, February 27, Air France and Air Caled sought to coordinate flight plans to ensure territorial continuity. If the route to Japan doesn’t change, it’s a problem to go far south to get to France. The travel time will be longer. Therefore, SB 800, which took off from Tontuta early on Tuesday, March 1, stopped in Budapest, Hungary, before landing at Roissy-en-Charles de Gaulle.
“Hijacking a flight is not easy because you need to find a safe solution and get the consensus of the different countries you are flying in.”, Generally, an aviation expert explained on February 28th (Monday) until the 1st overseas. Maria Lee mentioned the enlightening figure of 1,500 daily flights through the Siberian corridor.
Impact of War in Ukraine: Maria Lee, 1 Aviation Expert Interviewed by Thierry Hillersaint
Ticket price in question
Apart from the direct aspect, in this case, how to reach or return from the metropolis is a matter of cost to the enterprise due to changes in track and airport. Additional costs may be reflected in the ticket price.
Impact of the War in Ukraine: Maria Lee, 2 Aviation Expert Interviewed by Thierry Hillersaint
Nickel mixing impact
This war affects metal workers, especially SLN. It is supplied in Russia for certain raw materials such as anthracite required for exploitation. Manufacturers may need to reorganize their supply within the next few months.
Russian metallurgists are also competitors. This country is one of the world’s leading nickel producers with a Norilsk factory. Caledonia may take advantage of the situation to sell ore if the production chain is disrupted.
However, the impact of the conflict is so far uncertain, claimed by SLN’s general manager at NCla 1ère on Tuesday, March 1. “The results can be positive or negative. There is only one thing that is certain: it will increase price volatility in the market for all raw materials and our products.”Considered Guillaume Vershave, interviewed by Ann Clare Levek, a guest in the morning. “Very rapid and very strong fluctuations.”
“Now, as long as Russia can reliably export nickel to China, a very large consumer, medium-term results could be quite different. Ultimately, a balance will be found. Different, but they are all. You can find it. Same. “
Impact of the War in Ukraine: SLN CEO Guillaume Verschaeve interviewed Anne-Claire Lévêque.
And what is the impact of the region? “Currently, miners are known to negotiate with suppliers and customers in China, Japan and South Korea.”Developed Edouard Leoni, a financial and nickel strategy consultant, in the first radio newspaper in North Carolina on Tuesday, March 1. “It’s time to renegotiate the spot and short-term markets, so it’s time to negotiate. For minors. Sonarep, Montagnat, Mai, etc. come to mind. “
Impact of War in Ukraine: Alix Madec Mike and Consultant Edouard Leoni