Ministry of Economy, Finance and Finance of Paris.
The longer the war in Ukraine, the more prominent the weaknesses of France’s economic system and the more mortgaged the future. Escaped from the Covid crisis with extraordinary recovery and modernization potential, but between the need to catch up with activities and the need for ecology and digital transformation, companies achieve a 2021 fiscal year that exceeds all expectations. Did. Growth, consumption, investment, employment, all indicators were green and remained that way in the first quarter of 2022.
The war in Ukraine broke this backlash and is now forced to put a brake on all players... Inflation imported by fuels, agricultural and industrial raw materials that has diminished activity and again hurt foreign trade, especially transferring the entire society of angry endangered countries.
French software expected strong growth to amortize Covid’s debt and the famous ones at any cost that made it possible to overcome the health crisis without too many problems. The crisis in Ukraine has made the application of this software much more difficult. France can no longer afford to cover its debt at a low cost as planned. Therefore, budget gaps need to be avoided or slowed down.
Valerie Giscard Destin Having had to manage the day after the massive oil crisis of 1974, he steered to the man he called the best economist in France. So it was Raymond Barre who did the job.
It’s also a bit like the situation of Francois Mitterrand in 1982... Strong in his authority, he saved his appearance by maintaining the same Prime Minister Pierre Mauroy, but forced him to apply economic policies that were completely opposite to what he originally promised.
Which Prime Minister of Emmanuel Macron?
As in 1974 and 1982, the IMF was at the door of the house Monitor installment payments. Our rulers had no choice but what they did. Today, the IMF has lost many of its means, but it is Europe, especially Germany, that guarantees our work...
Europe is clearly in poor health. If France emerges from Covid in a better position than its German partner, it finds that the effects of the war in Ukraine have made France much weaker. Germany is certainly obsessed with Russia’s dependence on gas supplies, but in doing so it captures the entire European Union.For the rest, the foundation of its structure is much better.. Its public debt is sustainable, its trade surplus is exemplary, its social model is responsible, and its management is more efficient but lower cost. Northern Europe is rather a wedge to the German model. Italy and Spain are paradoxically less vulnerable than the French model.
In this context, the work of the President of France is not easy during his second five-year term.
First of all, he was certainly very widely elected, but the election base was narrowed because almost 60% of the French preferred to protest political parties and trends. Far right and far left. What they have in common is that they reject a working political system and a market economy system. Therefore, he becomes a fairly large number of members, but in opposition to the unified and popular ecological left, which has no purpose other than filibuster, as there is no reliable alternative to this left. be.
Therefore, the new government is obliged to propose unprepared economic policies with a majority of elected members... You have to swallow strict snakes like Raymond Barre in the Giscard era (1974) and Pierre Mauroy and Jacques Delors in 1982. Whether they are right or left, the political system cannot escape the wall of reality.Centrist positions or “simultaneous” cultures do not allow liberation from constraints
Finally, if the government does not have much of a majority problem that should theoretically be obedient, it will have to manage the competition for Elysee’s succession.Legislative election.. A feature of this second five-year term is that President Emmanuel Macron does not run for reelection. In this case, it frees him from having to spare his voters and generally make costly concessions. But this situation puts him on the sidelines of succession competition, which does not simplify the administration of national affairs. Because everyone has a small ambition to come out.
On the contrary, there is little surprise. Jean-Luc Melenchon has not completely abandoned his power, and Marine Le Pen is convinced that her time is now. Eric Zemmour does not think he is buried.
On the right, Valerie Pécrès’s failure was clearly not digested And the number of personalities who think they can’t do any more harm is increasing day by day. But it becomes a sport within the majority elected under the flag of Emmanuel Macron. All chiefs and deputy chiefs have set the political GPS of Edouard Philippe, Francois Bayle and Manuel Valls to Elysee. And young people. And the most clever is because it works like Bruno Le Maire and is definitely legal, or outsiders of political games like Thierry Breton and Christine Lagarde …
Not to mention the next (or next) Prime Minister. The function of the President of the Republic is horrifying, but many politicians are still thinking about it.
The choices Emmanuel Macron makes to nominate a person to settle in Matignon will arguably be the most difficult and important part of his mission. This is for the business community and is the business community’s most anticipated option. The next prime minister must do the following:
-Apply policies that do not correspond to the promises of elections held
-He will have to have a painful policy accepted by the majority, which is the first condition for monetizing radical opposition, but at the same time.
-He needs to manage the ego and frustration of everyone who thought he was in his place.
-He also needs to calm the enthusiasm of those who think about Elysee
-And finally and always look at the streets and unions
To be honest, equations containing 5 or more unknowns are very complicated to solve. Especially because the president should not be dissatisfied at the same time.
Therefore, if Emmanuel Macron finds a rare bird, and if the rare bird can last for five years, he is also a candidate for Elysee.
Next Monday, Emmanuel Macron will probably introduce his successor.