Every Thursday, Economic alternative Select the best chart of the week.For this new GraforamaWe value Europe’s dependence on Russia’s gas, the future of agriculture, the types of debt overhang, health insurance to reduce inequality, and France without factories.
1 / Europe is Russia’s gas addiction
As Russian troops invade Ukraine on Thursday, February 24, European Union countries are trying to form a common front against Moscow. However, some of them may be in a delicate position because their energy supply, especially gas, depends on Russia.
This is true for most countries in Central and Eastern Europe. Therefore, Latvia and the Czech Republic imported 100% of gas from Russia in 2020. Lithuania, Estonia, Hungary and Finland are closely followed by more than 90% of gas coming from Russia.
Heavy weights in Germany and Poland are also heavily dependent, with Russian gas accounting for 66% and 54.8% of imports, respectively. Italy consumes 43.3% of the gas in Russia, while France, which benefits from a more diverse supply, depends only on Russia for only 17%.
38% of the gas consumed by the EU comes from Russia and has been stable for several years. Moscow has the means to put pressure on its neighbors, but cash flow associated with the sale of this gas is needed as well.
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2 / Warning about the disappearance of agricultural land
Two days before the 2022 Agricultural Show, French farmland looks gray. Being bitten by man-made, increasingly concentrated on larger farms and degraded by synthetic inputs … the soil we can live in suffers from the consequences of productive agricultural policies. Masu, the first report of the Terre deliens Association explains. French land “.
Between 1950 and 2020, France’s useful agricultural areas decreased from 72% to 50% of its territory, the number of farms plummeted from 2.28 million to 390,000 and was divided into nearly six, she said. increase. However, the average size has increased from 15 hectares to 69 hectares.
In addition, a quarter of farmers are over 60 years old. The latter is expected to retire by 2030. Result: 5 million hectares should change hands in the next 10 years. The problem is, analyzing the report, low levels of peasant pensions may encourage them to sell their farms to the highest bidders. Or even promoters betting on the fact that land will be buildable …
Terre de liens while young farmers struggle to settle for land prices “Call on candidates to commit to great agricultural land law.”.. Objective: To avoid this speculation about the land. This promotes land man-made and perpetuating destructive agricultural models.
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3 / Less over-debt despite the crisis
According to the Bank of France’s annual survey, in 2021, 120,968 files were investigated by the Insolvency Commission. That is, 15% less than in 2019. “Unlike many analysts expected, the health crisis has not caused a resumption of debt overhang for the foreseeable future.”Pay attention to the institution.
These situations are primarily related to women and isolated people (separated, single or widowed), especially single-parent families. Similarly, a quarter of over-debtors are unemployed.
The total debt of these households will reach € 4.9 billion in 2021. Prices per file range from a few hundred euros to 15.2 million euros.
“One of the highlights of debt overhang in 2021 is the sharp drop in the proportion of real estate debt in total debt from 34.4% to 31.4%, which is the reduction in the proportion of files containing at least one mortgage debt. This is due to both what we did and, if any, the reduction in average mortgage debt per file. vice versa, Current service charge debt and other debt increased by 4 percentage points, but the share of consumer debt declined slightly. “Bank of France details.
Current charge delinquency, including taxes, energy and telecommunications, as well as nearly half of housing debt (eg unpaid rent), is associated with more than 3 out of 4 heavy debtors (78%) and more. Households are modest and increase their share of debt (excluding tax debt).
Finally, with respect to “other debt”, these are guarantees for activated personal or professional debt, or the amount required after a court decision (fines, monetary compensation after conviction, etc.) and “In many cases, you are not eligible for debt overhang treatment.”, Specify the Bank of France. Their share of total debt has increased by 8 points since 2010, but institutions have designated this as a constituent effect. This is due to the weight of some large files worth hundreds of thousands of euros and even millions of euros.
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4 / Health insurance, breakwater against inequality
Investing in health means taking out insurance not only for illness but also for inequality.Because, as the DREES survey pointed out, public health insurance “It’s the main vector to reduce inequality.”.. We already knew that our social model played a decisive role in this area, thanks to tax and social redistribution. Now, health insurance contributes up to 20% in reducing inequality due to all public transfers (not only taxes, tariffs and benefits, but also in-kind aid such as education and housing aid).
This is mainly due to refunds of medical expenses. Health insurance covers an average of € 6,000 per household and annually within two years.When3When And 4When One tenth of the standard of living. But for one tenth of the wealthiest French, this support is less important. It’s 4,400 euros. The difference explained by the worse condition of the most modest health condition. Except for 10% of the poorest, they are younger than other populations and therefore have less need for treatment. On the other hand, for the poorest 20% of households, health insurance benefits are not negligible. It accounts for 40% of disposable income.
Lending to health insurance also plays a role because it is progressive, but to a lesser extent. Therefore, the richest 10% contribution is more than 14 times the poorest 10% contribution. Something to think about for all candidates who want to reduce public spending or reduce the amount of contribution to trickles …
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5 / France loses its factory faster than its neighbors in Europe
Invited the industry as one of the themes of the presidential election. Invited to the Medef, Institute of Enterprise, Chambers of Commerce and Industry this Monday, February 21, almost all candidates went there with solutions and remedies to re-industrialize the country. rice field. And there is something. The extent and speed at which France lost its factories is one of the largest on the continent. This decline in the factory manifested itself in the midst of a health crisis when masks, tests, or respiratory tracts were gone.
A study of Rexecode published last week on France’s competitiveness supports this observation. France’s share of industrial value added in the euro area is only 13.9% in 2021, compared to almost 18% in 2000. France is not the only country that is declining, “In the same period, the decline in Italy is twice as small, but Spain approached that position in 2000 and Germany scored 3.3 points.”.. Between 2002 and 2019, French industrial enterprises decreased by 34%. France, in connection with Spain, once again recorded the largest decline in the euro area.
France does not account for more than 12.6% of commodity exports from the euro area, compared to 17.6% in 2000. Again, it is the country that has experienced the most significant declines. “If France maintained its market share in commodity exports at the 2000 level compared to the euro area, export revenues are now 210 billion euros higher annually than observed levels, which is about GDP. Equivalent to 8 points. “The study points out. Another expression of the hollowing out of industry is a country that currently has one million fewer jobs than in 2000. In the face of this situation, public policy is largely largely significant. It was trying to improve the country’s price competitiveness, especially by lowering labor costs, due to its limited effect.
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