“Emmanuel Macron’s Economic Turning Point”

FIGAROVOX / TRIBUNE- Re-election candidate Emmanuel Macron announced his program to the media and the French on Thursday, March 17th. For researcher Sebastian Ray, Emmanuel Macron’s economic projects are inconsistent.

Sébastien Laye is an entrepreneur and assistant at the Thomas More Institute.

If the Prevert-style economic measures catalog returns to presidential era, times have changed, and during the 1000-page reform of Bruno Le Mer since the abyss pause in 2017 (when he seized Bercy’s reins). (Soon forgotten, but under the leadership of the Macronist) and now, except for a more detailed sequence of LR Congress last fall, due to the lack of detailed measures claimed in the Emmanuel Macron project. The latter approach is popular. With the help of epidemics and geopolitical crises, it is clear that economic themes (purchasing power, inflation, growth, employment) that were nevertheless dominated by voter expectations are being driven into the background.

In this lethargic situation, formerly a candidate for turmoil, we always wanted us from the perspective of economic reform, but we chose to pay attention, for example, to entrust the economy to education. Therefore, the Macroeconomics 2022 project can accurately criticize what can be said about it in 2017. It makes mistakes on the ambiguity side, is often unachievable (is it often in the presence of a slogan rather than an achievable reform?), And evaluates macroeconomic contexts or public policy (experimental reforms). What works and what doesn’t) in terms of.

Initially, it was a telegram announcement of reforms before the announcement of the pension and the program, which was the purpose of the departure to 1965. You need to remember the candidate on this exact subject and all his past positions in schizophrenia-don’t be afraid of words-. In 2017, he pointed out that this type of parametric reform (retirement age or transfer of contributions) advocated by rights was useless, antisocial and cruel. It made people dream of a point-based pension project. This reform did not apply to any country and could not be implemented for five years. Five years later, Macron faced an imbalance in his pension fund, so he returned to “classical” reforms, but he proposed a version. This makes it obsolete. He proposes to extend the retirement age to … 9 years! Who can guarantee that his successor will continue to reform? What will happen to the financial situation of the pension fund in 5 or 10 years? This reform makes sense if implemented in a few years. It balances the financial resources (a year’s vacation brings 10 billion) and has a real impact. By spreading it over nine years, all economists explain that reforms will not actually occur. Above all, avoid the actual subject of capitalization of some of the pensions needed to save the pension system. Also to protect our industry and our savings. Here Macron is guilty of ingenuity and lack of ambition.

Emmanuel Macron has abandoned liberal software in favor of a conservative path: your lifetime tax will not go down, but your child will keep a larger slice of pie.

Sebastian Ray

We also found that he was in complete opposition to grain for inheritance tax cuts (but is he most lacking in the economic imagination of conservative rights?). Again, there is no big bang in rights. Talk about customerism (retired voters). But this is ideologically a true torpedo of macronist software. From 2014 to 2018, Emmanuel Macron, who wanted to be liberal on the left, blamed rent while promoting entrepreneurship. The message was that you can accept inequality and get rich in your life, but inheritance puts all your talents at the same level.

Emmanuel Macron has abandoned this liberal software in favor of a conservative path. Ultimately, lifelong taxes will not go down, especially for entrepreneurs, but children will keep larger slices of pie. If there is a revolution, it is at the very foundation of Macronist software.This reform will have no place in the book revolution 2017 by Emmanuel Macron. As for taxes, he has abandoned all ambitions. If the compulsory collection / GDP ratio remains fixed at 46% over five years, nothing should change. The state takes about 111.5 billion euros annually. Macron promises a 15 billion cut, a 1% reduction … and what will be reduced? The first beneficial one is related to CVAE and part of the production tax. These are 75 billion, twice the average level in Europe and promise a 7 billion reduction. However, this effort needs to be multiplied by 4 to actually have a slight impact. The second tax cut on TV license fees is an insult to intelligence. Where are the economic and impact studies that show this negative bias in license fees? What kind of economic activity is currently hindered?

Emmanuel Macron, like all candidates, returned to a 3% deficit in GDP at the end of his five-year term (a year ago this goal was expected to be achieved in 2024), $ 15 billion. Promises to fund his new reforms with his savings pension reform (if it was slow and widespread, he would have recovered 30), local government savings of 15 billion (national great) Classics, making others pay, suggestions (I still don’t know what concrete changes he will make)), the rest depends on growth (at this stage it’s unappreciated over a five-year period) Possible).

He also chose to revive Arlesian in terms of reform. Asked by RSA and its counterparts, weekly activity is from 3 pm to 8 pm. Morally, the majority of the population joins him. But economists and lawyers are not currently betting on the feasibility of this reform. First, some departments are experimenting with it, and the results are not definitive. If you have activities that occupy someone 20 hours a week, they will be work. We are not there in the presence of a time of general interest for prisoners, which is even more difficult to organize under current law. This is also the second statement about this pseudo-reform. As the President said, “between 3 pm and 8 pm” is 5 pm, half-time of legal working hours. The model exists and must respect the minimum wage, the minimum wage per hour. RSA will be 750 euros (430 euros today) or break social law. Perhaps we will never make this reform.

Certain non-revolutionary microeconomic approaches are more compelling if the main macroeconomic lines are inconsistent or chaotic.

Sebastian Ray

Certain non-revolutionary microeconomic approaches are more compelling if the major macroeconomic lines are inconsistent or chaotic. Assistance to support electric vehicle leasing is a reminder of previously announced innovation plans, demonstrating the true continuity of energy conversion and technology. Also, the DNA of the 2017 campaign can be seen in terms of work, promising unemployment insurance and Paul Amprowa overhaul, or extension of time-saving accounts. As if the work for the first five years stopped halfway. It had to resume between the “Yellow Vest” crisis and the Covid-19 crisis, and during the reelection. Unfortunately, we don’t deal with real problems such as the end of 35 hours or the salary in France being too low.