Bloomberg Economics depicts portraits of various factors that could affect the economy in 2022. There are many spoilers.
I thought I had experienced most of the Covid-related pandemics, but the economic recovery made me feel it, Bloomberg Economics We focused on the major risks that are still putting pressure on the 2022 economic recovery. And there are many risks.
Resumption of Covid
The first is, of course, the health crisis. The emergence of Omicron variants has rekindled a wave of concern throughout the planet, and it is still premature to estimate the damage that this fifth wave could cause.
It is also immune to the emergence of another, more toxic subspecies that will be forced to reapply severe health restrictions that affect the economy. In France, the closure of nightclubs is already affecting the entire sector.
The second worrying data is inflation. In November, France recorded a 2.8% price increase, resulting in a significant rise in energy prices.
Bloomberg Is concerned about the potential willingness of countries to compensate by implementing austerity policies and stop supporting growth recovery after “whatever the cost” policy.
The UK left the EU two years ago, but EU and UK negotiators are still cutting out their work for them. The dispute over the fishing permit and the border with Northern Ireland is far from settled. In the event of a diplomatic impasse, a trade war can point to its nose.
Tension between Ukraine and Russia
In the eastern part of Europe, tensions between Russia and Ukraine are not a good precursor to the western allies of Ukraine in terms of falling prices of Russian gas, which is essential to Europe during the winter.
In Asia, or more precisely China, the collapse of the giant real estate company Evergrande is not a good sign.
Notable Turkey and Brazil
Other countries are in an unstable situation. While Turkey’s currency has plummeted, Brazil and its upcoming elections have raised concerns about the coup attempt by incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro.
Is it good for 2022?
Experts from BrombergAfter portraying all possible disasters, try to end with a hopeful note.
For example, US fiscal policy could continue to grow beyond current expectations. That is, pulling the economy off the edge of the fiscal cliff and boosting growth.
Globally, households have billions of euros in excess savings, thanks to pandemic stimuli and forced frugality during the blockade. If this is used faster than expected, growth will accelerate.
In China, investment in green energy and affordable housing already planned in the country’s 14th five-year plan could boost investment. Asia’s new trade agreement, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (including 2.3 billion people and 30% of world GDP), has the potential to boost exports.
By 2020, the pandemic economy was worse than expected by almost all economists. But that wasn’t true in 2021. In many countries, recovery is surprisingly fast. Remember that some things can happen next year as well.