“Economic weapons will be decisive in the long run.”

cross: With sanctions on Russia, do economic sanctions today play an unprecedented role in the history of conflict?

Eric Delbeck: Up to the two wars of XXWhen In the century, power appealed to economic weapons, especially lockdowns. It consists of preventing the movement of goods between territories. But in the context of total war, a conflict in which all resources of one country are mobilized against another, economic means are somewhat accidental.

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Since then, we have moved away from the total war model. During the Cold War, the two blocks stared at each other in an atomic threat and a more sophisticated operational theater. We clash in Africa and Asia through economic espionage, cultural wars and satellite conflicts. Since the 1990s, we have experienced fragmented planetary landscapes and globalization that has created interdependence. Economic sanctions are currently in an important position.

What impact can sanctions have on this integrated world economy?

ED: Perhaps Vladimir Putin imagined that his strategy would be easy to implement. Especially when it comes to gas, he thought he had a strong card in his hand. Now, wait and see what happens in the coming months.

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There was a rapid reaction, but Europeans need to keep it. The longer economic sanctions are, the more likely it is to adversely affect the countries that impose economic sanctions, especially with respect to energy dependence on Russia. Still, the benefit of economic weapons is to show ambition and drive adversaries into negotiations rather than conflicts.

If military weapons are still decisive in the short term, they are economic weapons that will be in the medium to long term. In globalization, relationships between nations revolve around mutual economic interests.

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Did the scale of the economic measures decided surprise you?

ED:This war shows, among other things, blindness in the past. Some have been looking for a strong Europe for decades. Europe, a country that can claim its status as a military force, not federal Europe.

On the one hand, Americans are no longer in a position to provide all the solutions, and on the other hand, the world is dominated by the great powers of Russia and China, which are not our friends. And we couldn’t see them as enemies.

Do the financial measures taken reveal consciousness?

ED: For 20 years, Europeans were particularly creative in their strategy of influence over Moscow. We have shown that we have only plagued Vladimir Putin without imposing a true balance of power. This war should encourage us to rethink our economic ties with others, Russia, and especially China.

We are naive people of globalization, and our consciousness has been delayed. Can we reverse things? I have a question. China’s intelligence community, which specializes in economic security (industrial espionage, cybersecurity, etc.), represents 130,000 agents. For all European countries, it’s thousands. The gap is still 1 to 10. It was well recognized, but there is still a lot to do.