Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will affect the African and Moroccan economies, a recent analysis note shows a policy center think tank. The “bad timing” of Africa, which has barely recovered from the Covid-19 crisis and global inflationary trends.
Before Russia invaded Ukraine, Africa’s economic outlook was no longer good. Africa is still very exposed to pandemics, World Bank (2022) Per capita income in most African countries remains at least below pre-pandemic levels. 2023Describes the Policy Center.
Median inflation was announced at, continuing think tanks 5.1% Year-on-year change at the end of the year 2021.. Africa, especially North Africa, is particularly affected by soaring food prices. 40% Of households in many countries
Poverty level measured in $ 1.90 per dayWent from 34% Before the pandemic 39%according to Africa’s economic outlook (2021).
According to the classification of African Development Bank (ADB), 43 African countries importing energy also indirectly suffer from high prices for coal, gas and oil to increase the cost of producing energy-intensive fertilizers and food.
Although it is difficult to predict the exact economic impact of the current conflict, this war will have a negative impact on the global economy as a whole. And, for good reason, combatants are major players in the world’s energy, food and fertilizer sectors.
Russia plays a central role in the energy market.Each export is about 11% When 9% World oil and gas imports.She also represents Five% With world imports of grain twenty four% From wheat stuff.
In addition, Russian sunflower oil exports are essential to the global market. twenty three% Universal import of this product. Russia is also one of the world’s leading suppliers of fertilizers and one of the leading suppliers of metals such as palladium, nickel and aluminum.
Ukraine has a monopoly 6.7% With the world import of vegetable oil 6% serial.
In Africa, it is the energy exporters that will benefit more from the current war, the Policy Center said.To 54 African countries, 11 11 Think tanks are the major energy exporters, and the others are pure energy importers or semi-self-sufficient.
Algeria, Angola When Nigeria Although it is the three major countries that export energy Egypt When South Africa The two countries closest to self-sufficiency.
Policy centers predict that these states will benefit significantly from the recorded rises in oil and gas prices in recent weeks, but they cannot escape the rise in food prices. Their economy still depends on global imports of edible products.
Economically, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is strongly felt in Morocco, and the kingdom is an exporter of both energy and food.
Therefore, according to the Policy Center, Morocco is the largest African economy that needs to suffer a serious negative shock after this war.Evidence is that oil, gas and coal imports 6.4% Of GDP in 2019..
The kingdom is also a major grain importer. The cost of imported grains in GDP 1.4% in 2019But due to the expected poor harvest 2022Imports can be doubled.
This means that if the combined effect of rising oil and grain prices persists, it could be costly between Morocco. 1 and 2% This year’s national income concludes the policy center.