Economic impact from Lebanon and China

The purpose of the economic sanctions imposed on Russia is “of Causes the collapse of the Russian economy. “Bruno Le Mer, in the words of the Minister of Economy, Tuesday, March 1. Ukraine is a major producer of grains, especially wheat. Unfortunately, the terrible invasion of Russia for the country has had important economic consequences. How is this war affecting Ukraine’s trade with Lebanon and China? Overview.

Concerns about wheat delivery in Lebanon

Lebanon imports half of its wheat from Ukraine and Russia. And, according to a spokesman for importers in this sector, Lebanon is currently in stock for only a month and a half. And again, it counts the unloading of five grain vessels from Ukraine. Probably the last, as they left shortly before the conflict began from the Ukrainian port of the Sea of ‚Äč‚ÄčAzov, which was the direct target of the Black Sea and Russian invasion. The Lebanese Ministry of Economy is trying to reassure. Alternatives have already been studied for several months: The United States can deliver wheat through the World Food Program. Lebanon is also looking to Romania and Bulgaria, India and Asia in Europe. In the case of Lebanon, wheat is flour and therefore bread, so difficulties in supplying wheat and rising prices can be devastating. Lebanon’s staple food, where three-quarters of the population is already in poverty in two and a half years due to the economic crisis. According to the World Bank, the worst thing the country has experienced since 1850.

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Lebanon is worried because it is already in crisis, but in reality the whole Mediterranean is worried. Ukraine and Russia are breadbaskets throughout the region, and wheat is heavily dependent on these two countries. In Tunisia, 50% of wheat comes from Ukraine, and so does Libya. Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, imports about 20%, 60% of which comes from Russia. Russian or Ukrainian wheat is also found in Algeria, the second largest importer in the Arab world after Egypt. They are also found in black Africa, Sudan, Nigeria, Tanzania, or Kenya. Therefore, this reliance on Ukrainian and Russian grains clearly exposes all these developing countries to rising prices, but more seriously, to shortages. There are socio-political risks in the medium term. Return to the flour and bread that are likely to increase. We remember that bread prices were the driving force behind political instability in the region 10 years ago and triggered the Arab spring.

In China, exports to stagnant Ukraine

The two countries usually maintain an important trade relationship. Ukraine is considered by Beijing as a strategic partner that is part of a great Chinese project on the new Silk Road. So, obviously, trade with Ukraine has nothing to do with trade with other major countries, but trade relations are still important. They broke the record in 2021. But the war suddenly stopped the business. This can be seen in Yiwu, southern China. Yiwu City has the largest wholesale market for small items in the world.

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It is the center of the world’s factories: miles of corridors with tens of thousands of stores specializing in exports. Ukraine is considered an important customer in this market, especially buying toys, sports and kitchen equipment. Since the beginning of the war, the effects have begun to be felt, “MeOrders from Ukrainian customers canceled for the time being before Lunar New Year, This trader who supplies badminton rackets and sleds to Ukraine explains. That means a lot. Trade to Ukraine accounts for 20% of my total business. I sincerely hope that the war will end soon. “ Other merchants have already lost contact with Ukrainian customers. “No more news from clients.I will explain one of them. They represented a fair amount of orders. For one item, they will order 40-50 pieces. “

Ukrainians had expected a war from December. Chinese intermediaries usually explain that trade with Ukraine brings him 100,000 yuan a week, or 14,000 euros. Since December, it has taken two months to achieve the same sales. Factories in the Yiwu region have been warned and are expected to move production for Ukraine to other countries.

As for Russia, China opposes economic sanctions targeting Moscow, but China has so far taken positive steps to help Moscow avoid international sanctions. , Does not show willingness to go further. In any case, the Chinese do not necessarily have the ability to provide this assistance. The level of economic exchange between Beijing and Moscow remains limited. China is by no means Russia’s major economic partner, which is much more dependent on the European Union.