Economic Growth: Slight Acceleration in Second Quarter

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Economic Growth: Slight Acceleration in Second Quarter

According to HCP, it should be 1.8%.

“Rising commodity prices, especially energy and agriculture, are expected to weigh on the recovery of developed economies, coupled with global supply chain disruptions.”

Economic growth should accelerate slightly in the second quarter of 2022. Forecast by the Planning High Commission (HCP). It should be 1.8% compared to the 1.2% observed in the first quarter of 2022. An increase of 1.8% in the second quarter of 2022 with annual fluctuations instead of the + 15.2% recorded by the base effect of the same quarter of 2021. , Be careful in this sense. This slight recovery occurs in a global economic situation that relies on the development of epidemiological and geopolitical events.

“The development of the world economy will continue to depend specifically on the epidemiological situation in China and the effects of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which weighs on the growth outlook for the world economy as a whole in 2022.” “Rising prices for raw materials, especially energy and agriculture, combined with the turmoil experienced by the global supply chain, should weigh on the recovery of developed countries,” he continued. In this sense, HCP predicts that external demand for the national economy will increase by 3.1%, compared to the 20.7% observed during the same period last year.

The HCP outlook is also linked to a slight acceleration in domestic demand in the second quarter of this year, contributing 3.3 points to overall economic growth. “It will be driven specifically by the continued strengthening of public spending, but household spending will continue to be affected by the maintenance of strong inflationary pressures,” explains the High Planning Commission.

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HCP also expects added value excluding agriculture to increase by 4.1%. According to the HCP, this recovery will be driven specifically by tertiary branches with a 2.4 point contribution to overall economic growth. Similarly, mining activity should return to positive growth and the added value of secondary branches should increase by 2.8%. HCP also provides a reading of the economic situation for the first three months in progress in its economic notes. Economic activity seems to have shown resilience in the first quarter of this year. “In the first quarter of 2022, economic activity would have recorded an annual increase of 1.2% instead of 1% in the previous year, primarily due to a 3.3% increase in value excluding agriculture,” HCP explained. To do. in this regard. Looking at the HCP, the third branch would continue to benefit from the favorable base adjustments in the first quarter.

They would have contributed 1.9 points to changes in GDP, driven by the continued recovery of tourism activity. “In the annual fluctuation, the added value of accommodation and catering increased by 53.4% ​​in the first quarter of 2022, following the improvement of Morocco’s epidemiological situation and the reopening of the Moroccan border from February 7. , 2022 ”, reported by HCP. The Planning High Commission also observed a slight acceleration in the growth of secondary activities. Their contribution to overall GDP growth was 0.5 points in the first quarter, compared to 0.4% in the previous year. In addition, the added value of the mining industry seems to have declined in the first three months of this year. After recording 5.2% a year ago, the decline is estimated to be 4.2%. “In a situation where demand from the local processing industry is declining, non-metal mineral mining activity would have decreased by 5.3%,” can be read from the HCP publication. Manufacturing activity seems to continue to recover as part of it. An increase of 2.7% was observed in the first quarter of this year, compared to the 1.6% recorded in the first quarter of 2021.

“Despite rising raw material prices and rising production costs associated with supply problems, manufacturing activities would have been successfully resisted, especially thanks to the strengthening of the textile and metal industries,” said Chemical. Explain the HCP, which points in the same direction a 2.2% reduction in the added value of industry. This is their export selling price in connection with the decrease in the export volume of phosphate derivatives.

Key trends in the first quarter:

• Agricultural added value recorded a 12.1% decline in the first quarter of 2022 after being particularly dynamic in 2021 and suffered a 65% shortage of rainfall at the end of the first six months. campaign. Agriculture 2021/2022 compared to the same period of normal year.
• Inflation was the highest since 2008. Core inflation, excluding products subject to state intervention and volatile prices, rose significantly, reaching + 3.4% in the first quarter of 2022, its components, especially food and manufacturing.
• Domestic demand would have experienced a significant slowdown compared to 2021, but would continue to be the main support for its activities. Most of that growth is believed to be due to a 5.3% increase in general government consumption as operating spending increased.
• Household consumption growth has slowed significantly, reaching + 0.8% in the first quarter of 2022, up from 1.5% in the year-ago quarter.