Do Omicron variants curb economic recovery?

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The impact of the Omicron mutant on the transportation economy is still uncertain. However, most experts want to be quite relieved at this stage.

Like other stock market plunges, CAC 40 fell 4.75% on Friday, scaring the new variant of Covid-19, Omicron, and barricade itself to some countries such as Israel, Morocco, Japan and Australia. ..

In the fifth wave situation, some cases of contamination by new variants have already been detected in Europe. According to the EU Health Organization, Omicron also represents the risk of being considered “high to very high” within the Old World. What is seriously threatening the current economic recovery?

He wasn’t particularly afraid of tricoloring at this stage, according to Bruno Le Mer, who wanted to be relieved to say on Monday that this was not always the case.

“The stock market is always very sensitive and responsive. Our duty is to stay calm. I don’t worry about France’s growth, it’s solid and based on good fundamentals. The French Minister of Economy declared 2.

The same story from the side of François Billroy de Garhow, whose variant of Omicron should not revise the Bank of France’s economic forecasts:

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“Obviously, the latest developments in Covid-19’s (forefront of the pandemic) and new Omicron strains need to be carefully monitored, but the economic impact of a series of epidemic waves has been increasingly harmful so far. No, so this new wave probably isn’t. It’s changing economic forecasts too much. “

“The economy was able to adapt.”

It is true that each epidemic wave in the past has had less economic impact than its predecessor. After a 30% drop during the first confinement, tricolor activity dropped 6% during the second wave, 1% during the third wave, and remained stable during the fourth wave.

Another Reason for Satisfaction: Whether it’s a business environment or unemployment, the indicators look good. France’s growth overhang will be 6.6% in 2021. This means that at least this threshold will be reached if GDP changes in the fourth quarter are zero.

“I don’t want to worry too much: (…) good unemployment, good business margins, resumption of investment, the country is still playing a supporting role … now when this fifth wave arrives. , We are not in a situation where we could not react and the economy was able to adapt from wave to wave We are starting to live with (virus), how the economy reacts to this Know, we describe BFM Business Frédéric Farah, an economist and teacher researcher at the University of Paris Sorbonne.

Nicolas Bouzou, founder of economic analysis and consulting firm Asterès, believes that “we have learned a lot and are very mature today.” “What I find interesting is that for now, the economy can function without limits,” he emphasizes.

Efficacy of the vaccine in question

If the situation in France is not yet alarming, the main risks of the French economy at this time are from the outside, but some European countries have already re-established strict health restrictions and borders. Closures can double in the coming weeks.

Frederick Farrer said, “As long as our economy is not just turning to France, but related to Europe, we will see if it deteriorates at the European level, not just domestically. I need to. ” The Oxford Institute of Economic Research also estimates that introducing strict captivity in nine European countries most exposed to the fifth wave will reduce eurozone GDP by 0.7-0.8 points in the fourth quarter.

However, great uncertainty remains. Are current vaccines effective against Omicron variants? “This is obviously a big problem, but even if the current vaccine doesn’t work, (…) you can redo the vaccine relatively quickly,” recalls Nicholas Buzo, thanks to messenger RNA technology. ..

However, he recognizes that this situation creates new “logistics difficulties” and “population acceptance” problems, which can affect the economy. In addition, “the situation has changed a lot.” After months of “whatever the cost,” the government is no longer “roomable for the same maneuver” in terms of budget policy. The ECB also has nothing in terms of monetary policy in the context of inflationary pressure.