These striking results are the result of a strong growth of 7% of France’s GDP in 2021. We experienced a disappointing 2.7% increase. Mathieu Plane, an economist at OFCE, said: As a result, after relaxing health constraints, activity recovered very strongly and returned to pre-crisis levels in the third quarter of 2021.
For Emmanuel Joshua, Head of Research at the Rexecode Institute, the origin of this boom is labor market reforms (labor law, apprenticeship and unemployment insurance regulations). This epic post-health crisis has recovered, “he says. What pleases Emmanuel Macron who can count on his economic minister, Bruno Le Mer, who has been in command of Bercy for five years to sell his balance sheet on the eve of the flash campaign. mosquito. “It’s a spectacular recovery of the French economy, he encouraged himself. This proves that government policy is effective.” »»
Can Macron ride on these good results?
So, with such a record, is the match pre-bent for the presidential election? No, Jean-Daniel Lévy, Deputy Director of Harris Interactive, replied: Especially because the French rarely recognize the good economic performance of the country among the extroverted leaders. The most iconic example is Lionel Jospin, the Prime Minister of Socialism from 1997 to 2002. Thanks to the boom in new technology, France recorded record growth during his tenure at Matignon. It was 3.6% in 1998, 3.4% in 1999, and even 3.9%. the year of 2000.
Unfortunately for him, he was unable to reach the Elysee Palace two years after riding this wave and was eliminated in the first round. “Good economic results at the dawn of the campaign are not decisive criteria,” analyzes historian Jean Garrigues, chairman of the Parliamentary History Committee. During the Trente Gloreuse, General de Gaulle received the Waivers announcement in 1965 when he was given the winner in the first round. Since May 1968, the Fifth Republic’s father has given up power following the loss of the referendum, even though the economy is still equally dynamic … conversely, in the midst of an economic crisis. Running to can sacrifice the election. Giscard d’Estaing was slightly defeated by François Mitterrand, primarily due to the negative effects of the double oil shock, “continues Jean Garrigues. Expecting to win as the unemployment rate rises is a very difficult bet. »»
Purchasing power, big rocks in shoes
Another factor can confuse Emmanuel Macron’s reelection. That is the rise in inflation (2.9% in the year of February), which is eating up France’s purchasing power. If concerns focused on energy prices in 2021 and soared by nearly 19% in a year, we now know that the road to supermarket checkout is painful. “For example, households may need to make a trade-off between food purchases and leisure costs,” said Denis Ferrand, CEO of Rexecode. For executives, it’s a big pebble. “Unlike the essentially abstract good growth figures, anyone can see the effects of inflation on everyday life,” deciphers Jean-Daniel Lévy.
Solid “fan base”
However, according to opinion experts, the retiring president has a strong election base, or “fan base,” so there is no danger of being late. Despite the “yellow vest” crisis, pension reform protests, and the Covid-19 pandemic, the president still accounts for 24% to 25% of first-round voting intentions, according to the Harris Interactive Barometer. Stable score for several months. A priori, good economic records strengthened this foundation and could only successfully pass the first round ax on April 10. But political scientists and pollsters have warned against victory. “Small texts” can quickly revive criticisms of the “rich president.” And in the past, as the first round approached, retiring presidents were almost all polls, especially like Charles de Gaulle (1965), Francois Mitterrand (1988), or Jacques Chirac (2002). Experienced a sharp decline in. But when the economy improves …