A former Russian government adviser predicts that the Russian economy will “go back 20 or 30 years”

Russian economyDating back 20 or 30 yearsVladimir Putin is also endangering the future of his administration by attacking Ukraine, he said in an interview with AFP Sergei Guriev, a former economic adviser to the Russian government who went into exile in France. “”Putin succeeded in destroying the Russian economy in a few weeks“He is a former Chief Economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and is now a professor at Science Popari.

He”Huge recession“come,”probably┬╗Russian default due to sanctions imposed on the country by the West. Sergei Griev, a former economic adviser to the Russian government in the early 2010s and a former board member of Sberbank, Russia’s leading bank, felt threatened by authorities for his speech and intimacy with the former. , Left the country in 2013. Mikhail Khodorkovsky, CEO of the Yukos company and opponent of the Kremlin, was imprisoned in 2003.

According to Sergei GuliyevFor the past eight years, the (Russian) economy has been stagnant. But what we are facing is that the Russian economy will go back 20 or 30 years in terms of household income and the structure of the economy.“.”It’s hard to imagine how many years it will take to return to 2021 GDP levels“, He goes on to mention.”Not comparable to Ukrainian dramas, but all the same tragedy“. Politically, Vladimir PutinShortened the life expectancy of his diet“For this attack”miscalculationSergei Guriev thinks against Ukraine: Vladimir Putin is presidentFalse alarm“The person who has it”Underestimated the power of the Russian army, underestimated the determination of the Ukrainians to fight, and underestimated the unity of the West“.

“”Completely unknown area┬╗┬╗

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, Western countries have responded with economic sanctions on the trading capacity of central banks, Russian imports, oligarchs’ property and commercial banks. The effects of these measures, in addition to the effects of the withdrawal of many private companies, are now very difficult to quantify. Agency S & P Global recently predicted a 6.2% reduction in GDP in 2022, but the magnitude of the shock could be much greater, Sergei Guliyev warns.

“”We are in a completely unknown territory“, He says.”Russia is integrated into the world’s economic system. Many things break when decoupling. It is unclear how the economy will work without maintenance on Taiwan’s semiconductors, Boeing aircraft and Airbus.“, He warns. Besides,”For many entrepreneurs, it’s the end of a once-in-a-lifetime project“Points out the economists facing the collapse of the ruble and the withdrawal of many talents from the country.”Imagine building a business in the last 20 or 30 years.Today you can no longer access your partner, you can no longer borrow from banks, interest rates exceed 20%, you can not export or invest“, He fires a cannonball.

However, there is no doubt that it will slow down the flow of sanctions. He judges as follows.If the purpose of these sanctions is to stop Mr Putin’s war, Europe has no choice but to stop buying Russian oil.“The inability to stop Europe’s imports of gas, which certain countries refuse due to their very strong reliance on Russia’s supply, has triggered the European oil embargo in Moscow as a resource available to Moscow. According to him, it will fund the war. If all Western countries participate in this initiative, it will be “Encourage China to obey them on oil embargo” When “Steal resources of (Vladimir Putin) to continue his brutal warHe says. Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz called for a European-wide embargo on gas and oil in an interview with AFP on Tuesday.

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